Climage Change Module 2 : Assessing risk at the country level

edX :: Climate Change : Financial Risks and Opportunities

Module 2

Assessing risk at the country level

 

Climate change is expected to affect every country in the world, but its impact will not be felt equally across all regions and some will be worse hit than others because of a range of different threats. Developing countries, places with widespread poverty, and countries with ineffective governments sometimes face the gravest risks from the changing climate, and are usually poorly equpped to find ways to prepare for and prevent environment threats.

 

- Haiti

아이티는 인구가 농업에 의존하기 때문에 해수면 상승으로 인한 바닷물이 담수를 오염시켜 어려움을 겪게 될 것이다. 

 

- Yemen

제도와 정부가 취약한 국가들은 기후 변화에 적응하기가 특히 어렵다. 2015년 예멘에서 내전이 발발한 이후 수십만 명이 직접적으로 목숨을 잃었지만, 유엔에 따르면 그에 따른 기근, 열악한 위생 및 깨끗한 물 부족으로 인해 사망했다. 전쟁과 기후 변화 모두 물 부족과 기근의 가능성을 높인다.

 

* Physical risk at the national level

 

- The issue is really how to characterise it and define it. The difficulty that the financial community has had is integrating these physical risks into financial modelling, for example. How can we actually assess the potential cost of climate change, climate risk? The problem is we can't. Climate risk is kind of an amorphous concept. What we actually have to do is granulate that down to manageable levels of something like carbon risk, or what's the vulnerability of property, coastal property to sea level rise. Those are levels that we can actually analyse and then take that to financial modelling in terms of what equity valuation should be, or where should a certain industry or company be rated.

 

It'll probably manifest itself sooner in the equity world than in the bond world. But we've already seen it in the bond world in the massive downgrades of Germany utilities a couple of years ago. The near bankruptcy of the entire coal industry in the US is directly attributable to climate trends going on.

 

* 기후 위험 변동성이 높은 5개 나라 : 인도-파키스탄-필리핀-방글라데시-오만

* 기후 위험 변동성이 낮은 5개 나라 : 핀란드-스웨덴-노르웨이-에스토니아-뉴질랜드